The statement gives the Fed options either way.
If sentiment stays at this level -- it might even decline further -- you should expect a serious slowing in second quarter and third quarter consumption.
For now we are inclined to view this report as a fluke. It is too early to expect payrolls to weaken. But it supports the cause of a pause in rates in June unless more than 300,000 jobs are created in May.
It's pretty clear that people have been really rattled by it. The big question is how much of an impact has it had on spending?
The trend in the deficit has stabilized but it is not falling.
Reno's guard play was too tough for us. They denied our entry passes and just played with a lot more energy than we did.
The Fed acted swiftly and brilliantly,
Writing only leads to more writing.