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Steve Barrow in Wikipedia
We think it is unlikely, but it's a tough call.
Will the market push on for $1.05 this year and $1.10 by this time next year? We definitely believe that it will be the latter.
We don't expect a cut and we're not even convinced there will be a change in the Fed's bias. If the market is factoring in a cut, then it may come a cropper as a result.
The ECB needs to raise interest rates to stop a big slide in the euro. We doubt the German economy will slow down as is predicted.
Even after a big move down (in the dollar), the market is willing to sell any bounces.
There are three things to remember when teaching: know your stuff; know whom you are stuffing; and then stuff them elegantly
Adding these factors together, it is regrettably my conclusion that we are unlikely to return to balance in the federal accounts before possibly fiscal '05. That is, in the next two years things will have to break right for us to do that.
Things turn out best for people who make the best out of the way things turn out